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Multiple sources have reported large Russian military movements towards the eastern Ukraine border and into Crimea

Is Russia preparing to invade Ukraine?


Multiple sources have reported large Russian military movements towards the eastern Ukraine border and into Crimea, which Russian forces annexed from Ukraine in March 2014. Many of these reports have appeared on Twitter, such as tweets by Jane’s intelligence information group about Iskander short-range missiles.

The Kremlin has not given details. President Vladimir Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov said moving troops across Russian territory was an “internal affair”. Some of the troops, including units in Crimea, have been on exercises. But Mr Peskov also accused Ukraine of staging “provocations”.

Ukrainian intelligence sources told the BBC that the extra forces amount to 16 battalion tactical groups, which would be up to 14,000 soldiers. In total, according to the Ukrainian presidency, Russia now has about 40,000 on the eastern border and about 40,000 in Crimea.

On 13 April Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu accused Nato of “threatening” actions and said Russia had responded by sending two armies and three formations of airborne troops to its western borders, to conduct exercises. He gave no detailed figures or locations.

So is this an invasion force? It could be, but analysts say a big invasion is unlikely. Infiltration would be more Russia’s tried-and-trusted method. Russian special forces without insignia – nicknamed “little green men” – took over Crimea in 2014.

Map of eastern Ukraine
Nato Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg called the new Russian build-up “unjustified and deeply concerning” and said it was “the largest massing of Russian troops since the illegal annexation of Crimea”.

Ukraine, Nato and Western governments have also long accused Russia of deploying regular units and heavy weapons in separatist-held eastern Ukraine. The Kremlin denies that and calls any Russian troops there “volunteers”.

Speaking at Nato HQ in Brussels, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said Russia was “openly threatening Ukraine with war and destruction of our statehood”. But unlike in 2014, he added, “Russia won’t be able to catch anyone by surprise anymore”.

Why is Russia at war with Ukraine?
Russian-Ukrainian relations now are certainly hostile, but it is not all-out war. There are sporadic clashes on the front line.

Since the collapse of communism in 1991, Russian troops have intervened in conflicts in several areas of the former Soviet Union, notably in Chechnya and other parts of the Caucasus.

In April 2014, just after Russia’s annexation of Crimea, pro-Russian separatists seized a large swathe of eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk and Luhansk regions. Earlier, months of pro-Western demonstrations in Ukraine’s capital Kyiv had forced out a pro-Russian president, Viktor Yanukovych.

Mr Kuleba recalled that in 2014 there was a Russian plan to split Ukraine and create an entity called “Novorossiya” (New Russia) – a plan foiled by Ukraine’s armed forces.

The conflict zone, known as Donbas, is mainly Russian-speaking and now many of its residents have Russian passports. President Putin says Russia will defend Russian citizens abroad, if they are seen to be at risk.

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Russia’s use of special forces, cyberwarfare and propaganda in this and other conflicts is known as “hybrid warfare” – not a hot war, but not a frozen conflict either. A US special report for Congress last year highlighted the role of the GRU, Russia’s military intelligence agency.

There was large-scale combat in 2014, before a ceasefire in 2015. There have been some prisoner exchanges since then.

More than 13,000 people have been killed in the conflict. Ukraine says 26 of its troops have died in Donbas so far this year, compared to 50 in all of 2020. The separatists say more than 20 of theirs have died this year.

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